Morning Markets Brief
- US blockade around Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz keeps energy prices elevated, though some ship traffic has resumed.
- Global equities are firmer as investors look past failed US–Iran talks and focus on the prospect of steadier oil prices.
- Goldman Sachs beat Q1 2026 earnings expectations; Wells Fargo results are due this morning.
- Energy price shocks are pressuring confidence and costs, with Australia seeing an “historic” business confidence slump.
- China’s March credit data missed expectations and India’s equity outlook has been downgraded, while AI remains a major cross‑sector theme.
Middle East tension and US–Iran standoff
The United States has imposed a blockade on traffic to and from Iranian ports through the Strait of Hormuz. This has sharply raised energy prices, with Brent crude around $100 per barrel and European gas prices up by roughly 5%.
Weekend talks in Islamabad between the US and Iran failed to deliver a breakthrough. However, markets are reacting to indications that dialogue may resume and to reports that ship traffic through the Strait has partially recovered after an earlier closure.
Global markets and economic sentiment
US equities rose in the previous session, with the S&P 500 up about 1%. Investors appear to be looking beyond the lack of progress in US–Iran talks and focusing on the possibility that oil stabilizing below $100 could limit broader economic damage.
European markets, including the FTSE 100, are modestly higher this morning, supported by calmer oil price action and hopes for renewed US–Iran dialogue.
Macroeconomic signals are mixed: Australia’s NAB Business Confidence survey recorded an “historic collapse,” reflecting sharply weaker confidence amid energy price spikes and war-related uncertainty. By contrast, UK retail sales in March surprised to the upside, rising 3.1% year-on-year, the strongest pace since April 2025, helped by an early Easter.
US earnings season and bank results
Goldman Sachs reported first-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings per share of $17.55, roughly 7% above consensus estimates. Net revenue reached $17.23 billion, up about 14% year-over-year and also ahead of expectations.
Wells Fargo is scheduled to announce its Q1 2026 earnings around 7:00 a.m. EDT today, keeping large US banks in focus as the earnings season unfolds.
Energy prices and corporate reactions
Oil and gas prices remain elevated in response to the Hormuz blockade and broader conflict in the Middle East. This is feeding through into higher fuel and transport costs worldwide and is shaping outlooks for sectors such as airlines and logistics.
For example, Qantas has cited more than a doubling of jet fuel prices, underscoring the pressure on carriers’ cost bases.
Asia and emerging markets
China’s March credit data undershot expectations across all key aggregates, including new loans, total social financing, and M2 money supply growth. The numbers point to a softer domestic demand backdrop even as global markets remain focused on geopolitical developments.
In India, growth and earnings expectations are being reassessed. Goldman Sachs has recently cut its forecast for India’s 2026 earnings growth and lowered its Nifty target, weighing on sentiment toward Indian equities.
AI, tech, and broader context
Artificial intelligence continues to be a prominent macro and industry theme. Recent analysis highlights rapid adoption of AI across sectors, along with concerns around governance and safety. Financial research is increasingly examining AI-driven market prediction and the use of more “agentic” AI systems in investment decision-making.